They are really no different from everyone else. Let’s return to those high-profile broadcasters, social media celebrities and armchair experts who have been wilfully spreading an avalanche of misinformation. Armchair experts are just behaving normally And, of course, those we follow, being human just like us, are probably doing the same thing. We are also more likely to follow those who are highly confident, even though confidence is a poor predictor of accuracy. We look to our peers, and to the authorities and ideologies we respect, and follow their lead. Many current controversies have this flavour, such as whether COVID vaccines or masks should be required, or whether nuclear power is good for the environment. Often, simply knowing a belief is endorsed by a member of “their” side is enough to get people to support it. Liberals tend to be more drawn to seeking out change and novelty, both personally and politically, while conservatives, in contrast, have a stronger preference for things that are familiar, stable and predictable. The moral values of conservatives involve different issues – such as respect for authority – than those on the left, who put more weight on harm prevention. Partisanship also produces dispositions to belief. Strongly religious people generally do not believe in evolution, and atheists are not creationists.
How do specific beliefs become linked to specific social groups? In some cases, the link is quite clearly defined. Or they might be required to fit into a social group. They might be the result of self-interest or strongly held ideology, such as wealthy people believing taxes rob people of initiative. These beliefs might be “chosen” through indoctrination. Scientific evidence can help, but often we believe what we want to believe anyway. What determines the beliefs we adopt when we have a choice?
Armchair expert full#
If he knew more, would Trump have been less confident? I doubt it Trump was (or is) simply full of bluster, and his confidence was simply unrelated to his knowledge. Some researchers have described it as arrogance. In fact, there are individual differences in confidence, with some people being absurdly sure of themselves, and others quite diffident.īut the confidence of highly confident but wrong people comes not from their ignorance, but from the fact that they are inherently confident about everything.
It primarily means that just because someone is confident doesn’t mean they are right. The Dunning-Kruger effect, however, is a population-level effect, so no individual can “have” it.
Marjorie Kamys Cotera/Bob Daemmrich Photography / Alamy Stock Photo Trump was described as ‘having Dunning-Kruger’.
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